Santa Maradona

La posibilidad del futuro dic 02, 2013

Como yo no tengo (esta es mi excusa) un sistema emocional cercano (o lejano) en el que apoyarme a la hora de tomar una decisión suelo preguntarle a internet por consejo y a Los Científicos que jueguen al interlocutor. Y leer libros de autoayuda, una especie de adicción. Es como dicen que el que no oye consejo no llega a viejo, lo implicito es que haya quien los dé.

Entonces ahora que estoy tratando de tomar una decisión me topé con una nota en Science sobre lo mal que somos prediciendo lo mal que lo vamos a pasar en el futuro.

The single best way to make predictions about what you’re going to want in the future isn’t to imagine yourself in the future, … it’s to look at other people who are in the very future you’re imagining — Your elusive future

El artículo en cuestión es este. Y estos son pedazos de ahí.

people may believe that who they are today is pretty much who they will be tomorrow, despite the fact that it isn’t who they were yesterday. (…) people expect to change little in the future, despite knowing that they have changed a lot in the past, and [this] tendency bedevils their decision-making.

Prospection is a constructive process, retrospection is a reconstructive process, and constructing new things is typically more difficult than reconstructing old ones (…) If people find it difficult to imagine the ways in which their traits, values, or preferences will change in the future, they may assume that such changes are unlikely. In short, people may confuse the difficulty of imagining personal change with the unlikelihood of change itself.

Todo esto es terrible.

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